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As companies address Q3 and Q4 achievement this fall, there accept been a few balance calls that resulted in a massive banal jump. I absitively to assay the accepted factors that were at comedy with all these companies, acquisitive to ascertain a anticipation action an broker could administer action forward, to apprehend a banal jump afterward an balance call.

Since the best contempo bulk jump happened with Civitas Solutions, Inc. (CIVI), we will use it as an illustration, as able-bodied as one aggregation from its associate group: Amedisys, Inc. (AMED). Abutting time, we will allegorize these attempt on a altered set of companies.



Civitas Solutions Inc. bankrupt 16.32% college on December 14th, 2018, the day afterward Q4 balance announcement. While the banal is buy-rated by several analysts, few predicted this jump, as apparent from the bulk blueprint arch into the canicule and weeks advanced of the call.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

The jump is alike added amazing because that the US ample bazaar basis SPX (tracking S&P 500) bankrupt the day bottomward 1.81%.

Let’s assay whether we could accept advancing the banal move advanced of the call.

A quick epitomize on the company:

Civitas Solutions, operating beneath cast The MENTOR Network, is the arch provider of home- and community-based bloom and animal casework to must-serve individuals with intellectual, developmental, concrete or behavioral disabilities and added appropriate needs. The aggregation was founded in 1980, and has developed into a adapted civic arrangement operating in 36 states.

Listed beneath are the key factors impacting the company’s able achievement report.

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First, let’s attending at the acquirement advance in business segments:

SRS (Specialty Rehab Services) is the fastest-growing business segment, breeding 14.5% advance vs. Q4 of 2017 (and 15.1% in budgetary year 2018).

ADH (Adult Day Health) is a abutting additional at 12% acquirement advance vs. Q4 of 2017 (this articulation is fastest growing at 29.3% for the absolute budgetary year 2018).

CSS (Community Support Services) and CFS (Child and Family Services), the added 2 segments, grew 5.4% and 5.7%, respectively, in the aforementioned budgetary quarter.

Net acquirement for FY 2017 was $1,474.5; in 2018, $1.602Bn (which equals to about 0.67% upside surprise); and in 2019; projected at $1.66-1.71Bn (equal to 3.6-6.7% growth). That is a advantageous and acceptable acquirement access (led primarily by M&A action and to a bottom bulk by amoebic growth).

I ahead added acquirement could accept been anticipated, and actuality is why:

In Q4 2017, the aggregation recorded abstract asset and amicableness impairments. The administration quoted accelerated acquittal of affluence in the bulk of $6.1MM for the year, associated with affairs closures. This is a ancient accident that would be accepted to self-correct in the afterward advertisement period.

This quarter, operating assets came in as a absolute $11MM this division vs. a abrogating $10MM in Q4 of 2017.

The aforementioned acclimation (intangibles and amicableness impairment) afflicted net income. For Q4 2018, aggregation appear net accident of $1.6MM (or -$0.04 per share) vs. net accident of $10.7MM (or -$0.29 per share) in Q4 of 2017.

Net assets for the year 2018 was $14.9MM (or $0.40 per share) vs. $6.3MM (or $0.17 per share) for the year 2017.

We could accept advancing advance based on management’s address to focus on efficiencies, ablution new projects to access revenues while closing bootless initiatives. We knew about this from the management’s advertisement in the antecedent division about asset impairments and charter payments associated with affairs closures, acknowledging address to cut barren segments to accomplish the aggregation added competitive.

Besides…

An added acumen to accept accepted an advancement bulk move advanced of the balance call: the banal is almost undervalued compared to its own actual boilerplate and to the associate group. EV/EBITDA assorted for the accumulation is 10.3x per Bloomberg, and alone 7.7x for the stock. Certainly, there are affidavit for it, such as almost baby bazaar cap of $530MM, which warrants a discount, but about to associate group, accustomed the solid fundamentals and discounted valuation, the allowance were that the bulk would be added acceptable to go up than down.

(Source: aggregate from Bloomberg data)

There accept been aloof 2 times in the accomplished history of the banal aback it traded lower than a brace of canicule ago – already from 10/10/2014 to 10/15/2014 aural the aboriginal ages of actuality about traded, and already afresh 02/09/2018 to 02/23/2018 in acknowledgment to absent balance and amidst a ample bazaar pullback. Because solid fundamentals, continuing bazaar allotment growth, and incremental improvements in profitability, there is added likelihood that the bulk has added upside abeyant than downside. There seems to be little allowance for the banal to go lower in ablaze of the all-embracing actual bulk chart.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

Applying the insight…

Let’s see how an broker could administer the attempt declared aloft to addition company. We will accede Civitas aberrant adversary Amedisys, Inc. On 10/29/2018, aback Q3 after-effects were announced, the bulk confused up 14.16%. To put this move in perspective, the antecedent banal all-overs afterwards the earning calls this year were 7.8% and 10.88% for Q1 and Q2, appropriately (marked with blooming “E” signs), as apparent in the blueprint below.

(Source: Bloomberg)

The latest bulk move was added anticipated than not. Every one of this year’s AMED balance calls projects a faculty of how focused the administration of the aggregation is on excellence, maximizing operational ability and accretion business templates that assignment well, to new geographic areas. 94% of the accessories are rated 4 stars or higher, auberge affliction outperforms civic boilerplate in all 7 categories. With the contempo accretion of Compassionate Affliction Hospice, Amedisys is on clue to be the third better auberge alignment in the US, operating in 34 states.

When able absolute administration projections are continuously accurate by operational metrics, accretion amount of growth, and deploying basic into advance projects (M&A activity), this is a acceptable adumbration that the bulk will abide to rise.

If you absent the aftermost balance call, you can use the aforementioned attempt to appraise bulk moves action forward. The administration of AMED, analogously to Civitas, continues to focus on authoritative investments that will advance advance and access margin, though, per administration guidance, in 2019, there may be added operational costs afore cogent allowance bounce-back and amplification throughout 2020.

These capacity announce a absolute befalling advanced of 2020 calls to watch for. Here’s why.

At the moment, EV/EBITDA, a archetypal allegory metric for the healthcare/home bloom account group, is almost aerial at 13.17x. It can be argued that accepted advance justifies alike this aerial appraisal (10% advance in adapted revenue, 23% advance in EBITDA, and 70% advance in adapted EPS). However, if you don’t like the bulk today, possibly abutting year, afterwards added costs affect achievement metrics, the bulk will acclimatize lower, and AMED can be a abundant affairs opportunity.

Finally, while because both companies, accumulate in apperception how ample a archetypal bulk beat for the banal can be, afterward an balance call. Beneath is the abstracts for Civitas (and Amedisys abstracts was listed 5 paragraphs back):

(Source: aggregate from Bloomberg data)

Since the stakes can be rather high, an accomplishment to ahead the bulk move accurately seems all the added worthwhile.

Disclosure: I/we accept no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no affairs to admit any positions aural the abutting 72 hours. I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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Last Updated: December 21st, 2018 by admin
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