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One year afterwards the presidential election in which bounden Ilham Aliyev was reelected for a third term, Azerbaijan’s action National Council of Democratic Forces (NSDS) convened a accumulation affair in Baku on October 12 to beef the unprecedentedly acrid crackdown launched by the authorities in the deathwatch of that vote.



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Human Rights Watch calculates that aback Azerbaijan affected the alternating chairmanship of the Council of Europe on May 1, the government has “dramatically escalated its advance on activists, with [the] authorities arresting at atomic 11 people” and jailing at atomic nine others on politically motivated accuse afterward “flawed trials.”

That beachcomber of arrests has elicited criticism not aloof from animal rights watchdogs such as Animal Rights Watch, but additionally from the European accumulation and U.S. President Barack Obama. Former U.S. Ambassador to Baku Richard Kauzlarich alleged beforehand this ages for the U.S. to appoint sanctions in the anatomy of a law modelled on the 2012 Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law and Accountability Act.

Attendance at the October 12 protest, which was captivated at a amphitheater on the outskirts of Baku, was 2,500 – 3,000, according to the absolute website Caucasus Knot. Baku badge gave a far lower appraisal of 900. The cardinal would absolutely accept been college if the assemblage had taken abode afterpiece to the burghal center, but legislation on abandon of accumulation adopted in 2008 empowered the borough authorities to acquiesce such rallies alone in a actual few alleged venues.



The demographic was varied: Pictures acquaint on the website haqqin.az appearance not alone men in their 20s-40s, but a accumulation of aged men and a conservatively dressed middle-aged woman with a atramentous head-covering, all captivation pictures of political detainees/prisoners.

Addressing the aggregate crowd, Azerbaijan Accepted Front Party Administrator Ali Kerimli construed the advancing beachcomber of arrests as affirmation of the leadership’s disability to appoint in honest political competition. He argued that the authorities’ efforts to abstract Azerbaijan from the alfresco apple in acknowledgment to accretion all-embracing criticism of animal rights violations is abounding with risk. Kerimli added predicted that “the Azerbaijani bodies are changing, they will no best put up with repression but will say ‘no’ to approximate [reprisals], abuse and despotism.”

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Kerimli is now the de facto baton of the action afterward the abandonment of Isa Gambar aftermost ages afterwards 22 years as Musavat Party chairman. Gambar nonetheless affairs to participate in the presidential election due in 2018.

Referring to the contempo arrests, Camil Hasanli, the defeated NSDS applicant in aftermost year’s presidential ballot, characterized the victims as “Azerbaijan’s best aces sons and daughters,” who accept been befuddled into bastille and subjected to “medieval tortures” for their political convictions, their borough position, or their religious beliefs.”

The meeting, for which the borough authorities had accepted permission, concluded with the acceptance of a resolution enumerating the opposition’s primary demands: the actual and actual absolution of all political prisoners; a agreement of axiological freedoms; ameliorate of the balloter system, including a acknowledgment to the alloyed majoritarian-proportional arrangement and changes to the agreement of balloter commissions at all levels to ensure able action representation; and a close charge by the authorities that they absolutely plan to assurance an Association Agreement with the European Union.

Some alone participants alleged for President Aliyev to resign.

It is absurd to say with any authoritativeness whether the authorities’ accommodation to admission permission for the affirmation was taken in acknowledgment to all-embracing criticism, or whether it reflects a durably captivated acceptance that afterwards years of harassment, the action is now a spent force — or both. Several canicule afterwards, President Aliyev active an absolution for 84 prisoners, including four bodies advised political prisoners. The aforementioned day, the Azerbaijani accumulation adopted amendments to the law on NGOs abbreviating the altitude beneath which they may accept adopted grants.

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That arrangement of reprisals alternating with casual appropriate concessions dates aback to the era of President Aliyev’s ancestor and predecessor, Heidar Aliyev.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan faces a added actual and actual blackmail in the anatomy of falling oil prices. The amount of Brent crude, the all-around benchmark, has collapsed by 16 percent aback June. The reason, according to Stratfor, is a aggregate of over-production by Libya, the U.S., and Iraq, and apathetic demand. Aftermost anniversary the amount biconcave beneath $83 for the aboriginal time in four years, afore stabilizing. As of October 22, it was $86.58.

In 2013, awkward oil accounted for 84.44 percent of Azerbaijan’s absolute exports. But acclamation the chiffonier on October 8, back the oil amount was still aloft $90, President Aliyev downplayed the acceptation of the decline.

The online-daily echo-az.com quoted Centermost for Economic and Amusing Development Administrator Vugar Bayramov as answer that the Azerbaijani government is currently because three accessible scenarios. The first, optimistic one is that the oil amount charcoal aloft $80 per barrel, in which case the country’s abridgement will abide to abound at the accepted rate. GDP grew by 5.8 percent in 2013, and projected advance for 2014 is 5.0 percent, according to the All-embracing Monetary Fund.

The additional is based on a amount amid $60 and $80 per barrel, in which case the abridgement will stabilize, while the third, beneath which the oil amount avalanche beneath $60 per barrel, would necessitate cutbacks in annual spending accustomed that 75 percent of annual revenues are generated by the oil and gas sector.

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Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is accepting to pay added to annual its alien debt, which grew by about 50 percent in 2011-2012, and as of May 2014 amounted to $12 billion.

If the amount of oil avalanche beneath $80 per barrel, the after abatement in annual revenues could constrain the Azerbaijani authorities to cut amusing spending. (It is absurd that the aggressive annual will be affected: aegis spending was predicted at over $3.7 billion in 2014 and is to abound by 3.1 percent in 2015, back it will annual for 17.9 percent of all annual expenditure.) Implementing desperate cuts in the countdown to the aldermanic elections in the abatement of 2015 could, however, atom ad-lib accepted agitation on the curve of the agitated protests in Quba in March 2012 and Ismailly in January 2013.

On the added hand, alike in the accident of a abiding aeon of low oil prices, the aeon of allusive banking vulnerability will aftermost alone until accustomed gas from the additional appearance of development of the Shah Deniz drop begins to breeze to Turkey in backward 2018, and to Europe via the TANAP activity one year later.

— Liz Fuller

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